The shelf in 2009 - Petroleum production

15.01.2010
In total, 238.6 million saleable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) were produced in 2009. This is 24.6 million Sm³ o.e. less than in the record year 2004. The figure represents a one per cent decline from 2008, but exceeds the production forecast for 2009.

Total production of petroleum in 2010 is expected to be about 236 million Sm³ o.e. Production is then expected to taper off to about 223 million Sm³ o.e. in 2014. During the five-year period up to 2014, a production of 1140 million Sm³ o.e. is expected. In the five-year period 2004-2008, production amounted to about 1225 million Sm³ o.e. The gas percentage of the total petroleum sales is expected to increase from 43 per cent in 2009 to 50 per cent in 2014.


Figure 1. Actual and projected sales of petroleum 1971 – 2014

 Figure 1. Actual and projected sales of petroleum 1971 – 2014

 

In 2009, 103.5 billion Sm³ gas was sold, 102.7 billion Sm3 40 MJ gas. This is an increase of 4.3 billion Sm3 compared with 2008 (+4 per cent). Gas sales are expected to continue to rise in the coming years.

 

Figure 2. Actual and projected gas sales up to 2014.

Figure 2. Actual and projected gas sales up to 2014.


The production of oil in 2009 will probably end up at 115.5 million Sm³ (1.99 Mbbls per day) compared to 122.7 million Sm3 (2.11 Mbbls per day) in the preceding year. 58 fields contributed to oil production in 2009, in addition to a discovery which is undergoing test production. Continued focus on drilling of new development wells and other actions to improve recovery are important for the oil production on the Norwegian shelf.

The oil production in 2009 will likely be 4 per cent higher than the estimates prepared by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate in the autumn of 2008.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate prepares forecasts with a confidence interval of 80 per cent. This means that there is a 10 per cent likelihood of the production being lower than the lowest estimate and a 10 per cent likelihood that the production will be higher than the highest estimate.

For 2010, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate predicts that oil production will be somewhat lower than in 2008, 108.7 million Sm³ (1.87 Mbbls per day). The uncertainty in 2010 is estimated at +/- 13 per cent. The uncertainty is in particular related to the reservoirs' ability to deliver, drilling of new development wells and the regularity of the fields in operation.

For 2010, forecasts for production of condensate and NGL have also been prepared, 4.2 million Sm³ and 8.9 million tonnes, respectively. Total liquid production has therefore been estimated at 129.9 million Sm3 o.e. (2.24 Mbbls o.e. per day).

The table below shows forecasts for production distributed over the various products for the next five years.


 

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Olje / Oil
(million Sm3)

108,7

100,1

97,6

93,0

91,6

NGL / NGL
(million Sm3 o.e.)

16,9

17,1

17,0

16,3

16,1

Kondensat / Condensate
(million Sm3)

4,2

4,0

3,8

3,3

3,5

Væske / Liquid
(million Sm3 o.e.)

129,9

121,2

118,4

112,6

111,1

Væske / Liquid
(million bbls o.e. per day)

2,2

2,1

2,0

1,9

1,9

Gass / Gas
(billion Sm3)

105,0

109,0

112,0

112,0

112,2


 

 

Figure 3. Uncertainty of future oil production.

Figure 3. Uncertainty of future oil production.

 

During the period 2010-2014, oil production is expected to fall compared with the preceding five-year period, i.e. an estimated total production of 491million Sm³ oil. This is 160 million Sm³ less than in the previous five-year period. 99 per cent of the oil production during the period is expected to come from fields in operation or from fields which have been approved for development. This includes measures to improve recovery from the same fields. Production which has been approved will account for 91 per cent.

 

Figure 4. Oil production from 2005 to 2014 distributed by maturity.

Figure 4. Oil production from 2005 to 2014 distributed by maturity.