[Contents]
108 discoveries which are not decided to be developed yet (as of December 1996), are analysed. The discoveries comprises a selection of discoveries from resource class 3 to 7. They amount to 1.25 bill. Sm3 o.e., 0.45 bill. Sm3 of which is oil and NGL, and 0.8 bill. Sm3 which is gas. Troll III and discoveries for which a Plan for Development and Operation will be submitted to the authorities soon, are not included.
 |
Fig. 5.1 Geographical distribution of discoveries which have not yet been developed. |
The North Sea contains 81 of the discoveries that have not been decided to be developed yet (Fig. 5.2). These discoveries constitute a total resource base of 750 mill. Sm3 o.e. As much as 60% of the discoveries are smaller than 5 mill. Sm3 o.e. and most of these are oil discoveries. Discoveries within the size classes of 10-15 and 15-20 mill. Sm3 o.e. also show a relatively high percentage of oil. An important reason is that several oil discoveries were made in 1995 and 1996. Some of these are already being evaluated for development. In the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, there are 27 remaining discoveries and these have a total resource estimate of 510 mill. Sm3 o.e. A number of these discoveries are still not developed because they contain a large proportion of gas, long distance to a gas market and lack of infrastructure.
Based on the current plans of the operators for the remaining discoveries, it is expected that about 60% of the oil resources will be covered by development plans by 1998 (Fig. 5.3). Another 20% of the oil is in new discoveries which are being evaluated, or in discoveries with large volumes of gas. This shows that there is a significant dynamism with regard to development of the remaining oil discoveries. Several are awaiting processing capacity in an adjacent infrastructure.
Around 65% of the resources in the remaining discoveries are gas. Approximately 30% of these gas resources are expected to be covered by development plans by 1998. The market and commercial factors relating to the sale of gas are therefore key aspects determining when these resources will be developed.
Phasing into existing installations is expected to constitute a principal development element in the future. About 50% of the resources in the remaining discoveries are located closer than 25 km from existing installations. Production forecasts indicate substantial available capacity for oil in existing infrastructures after about 2000 (Fig. 5.4). Gas fields will largely have capacity available after 2005. Only a very small proportion of the remaining discoveries are currently looked upon as being situated critically with respect to time in relation to the use of adjacent infrastructures. There is therefore time to undertake further evaluation of the discoveries and develop more cost-effective technology if that is necessary to ensure an optimal recovery of their resources.
Mobile production installations may be attractive for oil discoveries located far from infrastructures. The problem will be to find acceptable solutions for the sale of gas at the same time as the level of the operating costs is not a hindrance to the recovery of resources with low production rates. A co-ordinated development of several small oil discoveries may be profitable and contribute to enhanced creation of value.
In 1995 and 1996, 20 new discoveries were made, 10 of which contained oil. These new discoveries, in general, contain both a higher proportion of oil and have a larger profitability potential than the remaining discoveries. This indicates that remaining discoveries over time have been subjected to a selection process on the part of the licensees, with respect to development based on criteria of profitability, risk and gas sale. These remaining discoveries are therefore not necessarily representative for discoveries that are expected to be made in the future.