Fig. 6.8 Basic scenario for total oil production from the Norwegian
continental shelf.
The basic scenario for the total oil production from 1996 to 2010 shows that
production is assumed to peak around the turn of the century, with a
production of about 215 mill. Sm3 per year (3.7 mill. barrels/day)
(Fig. 6.8), and will thereafter decline to just over 100 mill. Sm3
(1.8 mill. barrels/day) in 2010. This scenario includes fields in operation
and those whose development has been approved, as well as resources from
discoveries which are expected to be developed and undiscovered resources.
Figure 6.9 shows the net export volume of gas for the period 1997 to 2010. A
long-term level for gas production of 80 bill. Sm3 of gas is
assumed. About 70% of this derives from depletion contracts and committed gas
volumes allocated on fields. Non-committed gas volumes which are not
allocated on fields and discoveries, amount to just less than 20%. These are
sale contracts for a specific quantity of gas, where a decision is taken
subsequently as to which field and discovery will supply the gas. Possible
new sales on fields and discoveries make up just over 10% of the expected
export volume in the period from 1997 to 2010.
Fig. 6.10 Basic scenario for total production of petroleum from the
Norwegian continental shelf.
Figure 6.10 shows the basic scenario for the total oil and gas production
from 1997 to 2010. The production is assumed to peak just after the turn of
the century with a production of just less than 300 mill. Sm3 o.e.,
and will then decline towards about 200 mill. Sm3 o.e. in 2010.
The figure shows that the proportion of oil in 1997 constitutes about
three-quarters of the total production, whereas in 2010 it is expected to be
about 60%.
