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The estimate for the discovered resources varies from 7.5 to 10.5 billion Sm³ o.e., with an expected value of 9.0 billion Sm³ o.e. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the undiscovered resources, the estimates ranging from 2 to 6 billion Sm³ o.e. The expected value of the undiscovered resources is 3.5 billion Sm³ o.e.

The new estimates signify an increase of 14% since the calculations made last year. This increase is chiefly due to an upward adjustment made by the Directorate of the expectations for a future increase in the recovery factor for the in place resources on the continental shelf. Based on an expectation that 50% of the in place oil resources and 75% of the in place gas resources will be recovered, resources from possible measures for increased recovery are estimated to be 790 million Sm³ of oil and 420 billion Sm³ gas. The total increase in the Directorate's estimate of the recoverable oil resources is approximately 1015 million Sm³ o.e. This corresponds to about 68% of the total oil production in the period 1971 to 1997, on the Norwegian continental shelf.

The global oil production in 1995 was about 67.5 million barrels per day, the Norwegian oil production accounting for 4.3% of this. It is estimated that Norway has a total of about 1.3% of the discovered recoverable oil resources and about 1.8% of the discovered recoverable gas resources in the world.

As of 31.12.1996, a total of 1493 million Sm³ of oil, 492 billion Sm³ of gas and 48 million tonnes of NGL have been produced from the Norwegian continental shelf. The forecast made by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate regarding future oil production is based on information given by the operating companies. According to this forecast, the annual oil production will reach a maximum level of 3.7 million barrels per day in the year 2000. The uncertainty in this forecast varies from 3.2 to 4.4. million barrels per day. This forecast is based on the resources which are currently entered in the resource account.

Since the first exploration well was drilled in 1965, a total of 196 discoveries have been made on the Norwegian continental shelf. 54 fields have either been put into production or a decision has been taken to develop them. Plans, furthermore, exist to develop 36 discoveries, leaving a total of 93 discoveries that lack concrete development plans. A number of the remaining discoveries are expected to be developed in the future, but the exact time will depend upon vacant capacity on existing installations and a future increased market for gas.

Many new discoveries are still being made on the Norwegian continental shelf. In the last two years, 20 new discoveries have been made, giving a resources growth of about 260 million Sm³ o.e. The discovery rate is still high, around 48% for the last two years. For comparison, the discovery rate for the total exploration activity on the Norwegian continental shelf is about 38%.

Great technological progress has been made on the Norwegian continental shelf during the last five years concerning exploration, development and production. As regards mapping, the introduction of 3D seismic data and the development of interpretation tools have helped to provide a substantially better understanding of the substratum. Developments in well and production technology have also been instrumental in giving a significantly higher recovery factor on fields on the Norwegian continental shelf. This technological development is expected to continue and it is expected that new, cost-effective techniques will help to bring most small and medium-sized discoveries into production in the future. In the environmental field, too, the technological development will contribute to a significant reduction in the emissions to the sea and the air, per unit produced.