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17/10/2007 Activity is low. Norway adopts its own stringent environmental measures because no international agreement has been reached on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Text: Terje Sørenes og Ina Gundersen
Exploration acreage declines, and production is the lowest in any of the four scenarios. Oil and gas prices are low, few discoveries are made and exploration activity declines.
The climate effect makes itself felt, with Polar bears on the verge of extinction. A hurricane in western Norway causes great damage and loss of life.
An oil spill occurs in the Barents Sea during offshore loading. The public mood in Norway shifts, with the oil industry becoming the villain of the piece.
Further activity in the these waters is banned, while petroleum-free zones are introduced along the whole Norwegian coast. No new licensing rounds take place in the far north.
Norway also adopts substantially more stringent emission standards than other countries. Most of the emission reduction is to be taken in Norway.
Part of the production from the NCS must be shut down to meet the country’s obligations under the Kyoto protocol.
No new sales contracts are concluded, and strict standards are set for carbon management. Offshore installations must also be driven by wind power or electricity from land.
Because little acreage is available, discoveries are considerably fewer and smaller than expected. IOR measures are not particularly successful.
The players pull out of the NCS, and production falls significantly below the NPD’s long-term forecast.