17/10/2007 The supply of new exploration acreage is good. Oil and gas prices are high, which sustains exploration activity and production.
Text: Terje Sørenes og Ina Gundersen
Combined with stable frame conditions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this provides predictability for investment and technology development on the Norwegian continental shelf. Norway becomes a pioneer for technology and carbon management.
Several large discoveries lead to a major gas development in the Norwegian Sea and a new pipeline to the North Sea. An oil field is developed in the Barents Sea.
Norway and Russia agree on exploration in the area of overlapping claims in the Barents Sea, and a new liquefied natural gas terminal is built on the north Norwegian coast in cooperation with the Russians. Discoveries are made off Jan Mayen and in the northern Barents Sea.
The NCS is attractive for major players because it gives them access to the far north, which eventually becomes the centre of gravity for oil and gas activity.
Measures are initiated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with Norway’s main contributions being to offer gas as a replacement for coal.
This means that the country develops and adopts carbon management technology, and provides energy with an environmental guarantee which permits a continued commitment to fossil fuels.
High oil and gas prices also mean that capturing carbon dioxide for use in IOR (Improved Oil Recovery) becomes profitable.
The NCS becomes a laboratory for advances in carbon capture, storage and injection. Private funds with a focus on pure technology invest heavily in developing such solutions.
High prices and substantial technological progress eventually make it profitable to inject carbon dioxide in coal measures and gas hydrates for storage and gas production.
Large volumes of such unconventional petroleum sources are discovered on the NCS. Huge opportunities will also open worldwide because these resources are widespread.
Carbon injection for IOR means that production is higher than expected, while gas output towards the end of the period is boosted by injecting into coal measures and gas hydrates.
The oil industry becomes attractive for socially-conscious young people who see it as part of the solution to climate challenges rather than simply as part of the problem.
Because discoveries are bigger and more numerous than expected, production exceeds the NPD’s long-term forecast.