The shelf 2010 – Petroleum production
13/01/2011 In total, 229.5 million saleable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) were produced in 2010. This is 34.6 million Sm³ o.e. less than in the record year 2004, and a decline of four per cent from 2009.
The total estimated production of petroleum in 2011 is approximately 228 million Sm³ o.e. Production is then expected to decline gradually to around 221 million Sm³ o.e. in 2015.
For the five-year period up to 2015, production is expected to be 1120 million Sm³ o.e. In the five-year period 2006-2010, production amounted to slightly less than 1200 million Sm³ o.e.
The gas percentage of the total petroleum sales is expected to increase from 46 per cent in 2010 to 51 per cent in 2015.
Figure 1. Actual and projected sales of petroleum 1971-2015.
In 2010, 106.4 billion Sm³ gas was sold, 105.6 billion Sm3 (40 MJ) gas. This represents an increase of 2.9 billion Sm3 compared with 2009 (+3 per cent). Gas sales are expected to continue to rise in the next few years.
Figure 2. Actual and projected gas sales through 2015.
Oil production in 2010 will probably total 104.4 million Sm³ (1.8 million bbls per day), compared with 115.5 million Sm3 (2.0 million bbls per day) in the previous year. 61 fields contributed to the total oil production in 2010, in addition to test production from one discovery.
Continued focus on the drilling of new development wells and other measures to improve recovery are important for the oil production on the Norwegian shelf.
Oil production in 2010 will most likely come in four per cent lower than the estimates prepared by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate in the autumn of 2009.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate prepares forecasts with a confidence interval of 80 per cent. This means that there is a 10 per cent likelihood of the production being lower than the lowest estimate and a 10 per cent likelihood that the production will be higher than the highest estimate.
As for 2011, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate estimates that oil production will be somewhat lower than in 2010, 98.3 million Sm³ (1.7 million bbls per day). The uncertainty in 2011 is estimated at +14/-10 per cent. This uncertainty is particularly linked to the reservoirs’ ability to deliver, drilling of new development wells, start-up of new fields and regularity of producing fields.
Forecasts for production of condensate and NGL have also been prepared for 2011, 4.2 million Sm³ and 8.9 million tonnes, respectively. Total liquid production is therefore estimated at 129.9 million Sm3 o.e. (2.24 million bbls o.e. per day).
The table below shows production forecasts distributed over the various products for the next five years.
Figure 3. Uncertainty in future oil production.
Forecasts for the period 2011-2015 indicate reduced oil production compared with the previous five-year period, i.e. estimated total production of 463 million Sm³ oil. This is 144 million Sm³ less than in the previous five-year period. 97 per cent of the oil production in the period is expected to come from fields in operation, or fields approved for development. This includes improved recovery measures on the same fields. Approved production accounts for 88 per cent of the volume in the five-year period.
Figure 4. Oil production 2006-2015, distributed by maturity.