In-person Seminar @NPD: Curbing Optimism and Overconfidence Bias in Forecasting
13/04/2023 The integrated reservoir modelling network group presents Prof. Reidar B. Bratvold from Stanford University. He will be talk about Curbing Optimism and Overconfidence Bias in Forecasting. Don't miss out on this great talk at the NPD on April 26.
The oil and gas industry has made significant strides in uncertainty modeling and quantification. However, despite these advances, there is still a persistent problem with optimistic and overconfident cost, time, and production forecasts, which leads to substantial value losses. Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) offers a solution to this issue by providing an effective way to generate unbiased forecasts.