The shelf in 2008 - Petroleum production
09/01/2009 A total of 242.2 million marketable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) were produced in 2008. This is 21.8 million Sm³ o.e. less than in the record year 2004 and a small increase from 2007.
Total production of petroleum in 2009 is expected to reach approximately 236 million Sm³ o.e. Production is then expected to decline gradually to around 228 million Sm³ o.e. in 2013. A production of 1 160 million Sm³ o.e. is expected in the five-year period up to 2013. Approximately 1 250 million Sm³ o.e. was produced in the five-year period 2003-2007. The percentage of gas in total petroleum sales is expected to increase from 40 per cent in 2008 to 49 per cent in 2013.
Figure 1. Actual and forecast sales of petroleum 1971 – 2013
Around 99.3 billion Sm³ gas was sold in 2008, which is an increase of 9.7 billion Sm3 compared with 2007 (+10.8 per cent). Gas sales are expected to increase to more than 102 billion Sm³ in 2009. Production of marketable gas is expected to continue to rise in the years to come.
Figure 2. Actual and forecast gas sales up to 2012.
Oil production in 2008 is expected to reach 122.7 million Sm³ (2.11 million barrels per day) compared with 128.3 million Sm³ (2.21 million barrels per day) in the previous year. 53 fields contributed to oil production in 2008. A continued commitment to drilling new development wells and other measures to improve recovery is important for oil production on the Norwegian shelf.
The 2008 oil production appears to be four per cent higher than the estimates prepared by the NPD in the autumn of 2007.
The NPD prepares forecasts within an 80 per cent confidence interval. This means there is a 10 per cent likelihood that production will be lower than the low estimate and a 10 per cent likelihood that production will be higher than the high estimate.
For 2009, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate estimates that oil production will be somewhat lower than in 2008, 110.8 million Sm³ (1.9 million barrels per day). The uncertainty in 2009 is estimated at +/- 13 per cent, mainly linked to the ability of the reservoirs to deliver, the drilling of new development wells and regularity for fields in operation.
Production of condensate and NGL has also been forecast in 2009; 4 million Sm³ condensate and 10 million tonnes of NGL, which brings the estimated total liquid production to 141.9 million Sm³ o.e. (2.3 million barrels o.e. per day).
The table below shows production forecasts distributed by the various products for the next five years.
Figure 3. Uncertainty in future oil production.
Reduced oil production is expected in the period 2009-2013, as compared with the previous five-year period, i.e. a total estimated production of 503 million Sm³ oil. This is 195 million Sm³ less than in the previous five-year period. More than 98 per cent of the oil produced during this period is expected to come from producing fields or from fields that have been approved for development. This includes measures to improve recovery from these same fields.
Figure 4. Oil production from 2001 to 2013 distributed by maturity.