Fact box 3.1 A high resource outcome
To illustrate the possible effect of proving a play, the NPD has described a scenario X .
This assumes that an exploration well makes a discovery confirming the Triassic play, which has the highest resource potential. It also assumes that results from this well increases expectations for the gross rock volume in this play. A discovery will enhance the probability for source rocks in other Late Triassic and Jurassic plays in the area.
The scenario illustrates a possible outcome at the extreme edge of the resource distribution. This should be included in the assessment of the possible consequences of opening the areas for exploration.
As figure 3.8 shows, the scenario makes a big change to the resource distribution. The expected value for total recoverable resources increases markedly, and the division between liquids and gas changes correspondingly.
Figure 3.8 New resource distribution with scenario X. Original estimate of the resource distribution in Barents Sea North in dark colours. New estimate of the resource distribution in scenario X in lighter colours.